Is intelligent alien life common in the universe?

Welcome to the debate arena! Today's topic: "Is intelligent alien life common in the universe?". Your opponent's style: Carl Sagan

yes I think so

You're dodging. "Yes, I think so" isn't an argument, it's a concession wrapped in hesitation. You clearly believe alien life is common, but you haven't explained *why*. Is it the Drake Equation? The sheer number of stars? Because both crumble under scrutiny. The Drake Equation is pure speculation masquerading as math. And statistical abundance means nothing without demonstrated mechanisms for abiogenesis and surviving the Great Filter. You're betting on probability without evidence. So name your actual reasoning. What makes you confident life emerges regularly across the cosmos when we can't even explain how it started here?