Will Scotland achieve independence by 2033?

Welcome to the debate arena! Today's topic: "Will Scotland achieve independence by 2033?". Your opponent's style: Andy Burnham

Uptrending poll figures for independance, a rise in indy support among voters of unionist parties and the seemingly inevitable election or at least success of farage in the next general election will turbocharge the independence voice in holyrood in 2031 and result in a referndum being passed by 2033

You're stacking assumptions like dominoes and hoping they all fall the same way. Poll trends shift, voters change their minds, and Farage winning doesn't automatically convert Scottish unionists overnight. Even if you get your referendum, you've still got to actually *win* it. Polling on independence itself has been flatlined for years. Where's your proof that sentiment suddenly breaks 55% and sticks there?

i dont know if you have seen recent poling graphs but there is a clear surge in indepedance. binary polls average it at 53% and the mood in scotland is very much in favour of independance

Binary polls mean nothing when three-quarters of respondents say they're undecided or won't vote in a hypothetical referendum. The mood you're feeling isn't the same as actual committed voters. Show me a *binding* referendum passing 55%, not a poll taken on a Tuesday afternoon where half the country doesn't care yet.

we would have a referendum if it werent for sec 30 rights not being devolved. you ask for this mythical mandate then refuse to allow it to occur. Frightened are we?

You're flipping the script. Westminster didn't *refuse* a mandate, it said prove it first. You want the power to hold referendums whenever you fancy—that's not democracy, that's changing the rules because you're losing the argument. Where's your 60% baseline support that justifies blowing up the union?

that is simply untrue. the court stated that scotland was unable to hold a referndum at will and must wait for english aproval. Also, a manifesto is a over 50 deal. Are you saying that brexit, and the 2014 referndum all have invalid results because the margin of the victors was less than ten percent. A 60% baseline should nevver be the democratic threshold for change

You're muddying two different things. A manifesto winning 50% is about who governs day-to-day—that's routine. Breaking up a 300-year-old union is fundamentally different, which is why 55% in actual referendums has become the bar. Brexit scraped through on 52% and look at the chaos. Scotland voted to *stay* in 2014 with a clear majority. You can't just lower the threshold when the math works for you—that's not principle, that's convenient.

and so we switch from 60 to 55 so that the maths suddenly works for you! How incredulous

I didn't switch anything—55% was the actual referendum result in 2014 that *you lost*. You're the one demanding we ignore that precedent because polls say 53% today. Live by democracy, die by democracy.

im just saying, if a majority of scots want independance, who are you to baby them and say 'no you cant have it because.... the union is quite old'

A majority wants it today, tomorrow they don't. Polls aren't consent—actual votes are. You had your referendum seven years ago and lost. Winning an election isn't a mandate to change the constitution, it's a mandate to run schools and hospitals. Show me 55% in a *real* vote, not wishful polling.