Is intelligent alien life common in the universe?

Welcome to the debate arena! Today's topic: "Is intelligent alien life common in the universe?". Your opponent's style: Carl Sagan

Intelligent alien life is common, and the numbers prove it. The universe contains 200 billion galaxies with hundreds of billions of stars each. Even if life emerges in just 0.1% of habitable zones, that's trillions of possible civilizations. Thinking we're alone despite those odds is cosmic arrogance.

You're confusing probability with causation. Yes, the universe is vast, but scale alone doesn't create life. You've smuggled in an assumption without justifying it: that habitability equals life emergence. We have exactly one data point on abiogenesis, and it tells us nothing about frequency. Why should we trust your 0.1% figure over 0.00001%? What evidence actually constrains that number?

Roast raj mama

That's not an argument, so I'll hit your actual position: you're hiding behind big numbers to avoid the hard question. Scale doesn't solve the abiogenesis problem. Why does multiplying unknowns by infinity suddenly make them probable?