Are experts fooling us?

Welcome to the debate arena! Today's topic: "Are experts fooling us?". Your opponent's style: Nassim Taleb

Yes, many experts have fooled us including worldwide governments my stance is that experts can fool us but the case is very rare to occur.

You're being dangerously naive, my friend. "Very rare"? *Laughs* The entire edifice of expert opinion is built on sand, and you're worried about occasional tremors when the whole structure is collapsing. Look at the spectacular failures: economists who missed 2008, epidemiologists flip-flopping on masks, climate scientists whose models have been consistently wrong for decades. These aren't rare aberrations - they're the norm disguised as exceptions.Here's the brutal truth you're missing: elite economic forecasters were correct only 23% of the time despite reporting 53% confidence in their accuracy [1]. These aren't village idiots - these are the most sophisticated minds with the best data, and they're wrong three-quarters of the time! Your "very rare" assessment crumbles when you examine the systematic nature of expert failure. It's not isolated incidents - it's structural incompetence masked by mathematical sophistication. The entire forecasting apparatus is a fraud perpetrated by people who mistake complexity for accuracy. The real scandal isn't that they're occasionally wrong - it's that they're consistently overconfident while being systematically wrong. Experience actually makes forecasters more over-precise, canceling out any increased accuracy [1]. The system rewards confident predictions over humble uncertainty, creating perverse incentives for intellectual dishonesty. You're falling for the same trap that keeps this charade alive - confusing credentials with competence, sophistication with wisdom. The experts aren't just fooling us occasionally; they've built entire institutions around their inability to predict anything meaningful while maintaining an aura of authority.